Linda Glawe, team member of the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies, attended the 11th International Conference on the Chinese Economy: “The ‘new normal growth’ and the future of the China’s economy” in Clermont-Ferrand (France) from the 19th to 20th October 2017 where she presented her Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper “The People’s Republic of China in the Middle-Income Trap?”, jointly written with Prof. Helmut Wagner. She also attended the Third International Forum on the “New Silk Road” and Sino-European Cooperation in Duisburg (Germany) from the 8th to 9th November 2017.
It was the event that cached the most attention around the globe in the last days. The 19th Congress of the Communist Party has come to an end and the current President of the People’s Republic Xi Jinping has laid the foundation for a long reign. In the following section you can find press articles that summarize the results of the congress in China.
Today the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has begun in Beijing. With just one meeting in five years the encounter of the leaders of the world’s biggest economy is not just import for China but for the whole world. It is the first time that Xi Jinping, the current General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the People’s Republic of China, is the chairman of the one week long congress. In his over three hour long opening-speech he heralded a new era in the history of China. He proclaimed that China has “[…] taken a driver seat in international cooperation […]” and emphasized that no country alone can face the challenges of mankind and can afford to “retreat into self-isolation”. Further, he addressed to the problems of corruption, that he called the greatest threat to the party’s survival, and the global challenge of climate change.
This year’s congress, as it goes on, is kind of unusual because a huge number of party officials are going to retire and therefor need to be replaced. All new and important information according to the 19th congress will be presented at the CEAMeS homepage during the next week.
The CEAMeS Discussion-Paper No. 03 “The building up of new imbalances in China: the dilemma with ‘rebalancing’” by Prof. Helmut Wagner was recently published in the latest issue of “International Economics and Economic Policy” (Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 701-722). You can find the new publication here.
Guanchu Li, Yuanyuan Liu, Chengsi Zhang
In: The World Economy, Vol. 40, No. 9, 1890-1917
The rapid growth that China has experienced throughout the past few decades was accompanied by a remarkable increase in income inequality. Li et al. investigate the linear and non-linear impacts of financial development and structure on income inequality, by using panel data for 23 Chinese provinces over the period from 1996 to 2012. Further they pay attention to the dual structure (rural and urban regions) of the Chinese economy.
Thomas Gawarkiewicz and Yao Tang
In: The World Economy, Vol. 40, No. 9, 1958-1988
In this paper Gawarkiewicz and Tang aime to estimate the relationship between tensions, trade and capital flows in East and South-East Asia specifically. They identify three possible channels through which tensions can affect trade and/or capital flows: 1.) at the governmental level, 2.) at the firm level, and 3.) at the individual level due to consumer choices. Because a multitude of factors influence trade and capital flows, they estimate the determination of international trade and investment in a gravity model of trade augmented by political factors.
Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Loren Brandt, Vernon Henderson, Matthew Turner
In: Review of Economics and Statistics Volume 99 | Issue 3 | July 2017 p.435-448
Baum-Snow et al. investigate the effects of the recently constructed Chines national highway system on local economic outcomes. They focus on the different consequences for regional primates and hinterland prefectures and offer, based on their results, policy implications.
Kyle Handley and Nuno Limão
In: American Economic Review, Vol. 107, No. 9, 2731–2783
One of the most important economic developments of the last 20 years is China’s integration into the global trading system. The world’s share of imports from China between 1990 and 2010 rose from 2 to 11 percent. Handley and Limão argue that China’s WTO accession significantly contributed to its export boom to the United States through a reduction in US trade policy uncertainty. To verify that argument they build a model that allows them to interpret, gauge and quantify the effects of trade policy uncertainty.
In: European Economic Review, Vol. 98, September 2017, 169-188
Mau analyzes the transmission of bilateral trade policies on multilateral exports, due to existence of a global component in fixed export entry costs. Therefore he provides formal intuition for a spillover from bilateral US tariffs policies to China’s multilateral export performance. With this analysis he shed some light on the understanding of the consequences of international trade policies.
Hui He, Hanya Li and Jinfan Zhang
IMF Working Paper 17/147
He et al. deal with the question whether the stock market affects a firm’s innovation activity or not. To do so they examine the innovation activities of Chinese firms by make use of the unique characteristics of the Chinese patent system. In their paper they are running an ordinary least squares regression as well as a difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the endogeneity concerns that come along with the OLS analysis.
JaeBin Ahn, Romain Duval
IMF Working Paper No. 17/122
In this paper Ahn and Duval discuss the benefits and costs of rising trade between China and advanced economies. They criticize the shift in the economic focus, away from the benefits toward the costs of a globalized world. Therefore the authors analyze the impact of productivity in advanced economies of fast-growing trade with China between the mid-1990s and late-2000s.
Loren Brandt, Johannes van Biesebroeck, Luhang Wang and Yifan Zhang
In: American Economic Review 2017, Vol. 107, No. 9, 2784-2820
Brandt et al. examine the effects that the trade liberalization in China during the last decades had on the evolution of markups and productivity of Chinese manufacturing firms. Therefore they use firm-level data that covers most of the manufacturing sector in China to investigate the role of domestic trade liberalization over a period that includes China’s WTO-entry 2001.
Linda Glawe, researcher at the Department of Macroeconomics and at the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies (CEAMeS) participated in the 6th Lindau Meeting on Economic Science in Lindau from the 22nd to 26th August 2017. She is one of the 350 young economists from 66 countries that have successfully undergone a multi-stage, international selection process and qualified for the meeting. Central topics of the Lindau Meeting included social inequality, new conditions for monetary and fiscal policy as well as contract and organisational theory. Besides the lectures of the 17 Nobel laureates, the program also included several panel discussions and seminars which offered the opportunity for inspiring and interesting discussions with the laureates. For Linda Glawe, it was an especially great pleasure to talk to Professor Christopher Pissarides about her current research.
Linda Glawe and Professor Christopher Pissarides
Eric Ghysels, Hanwei Liu
CEPR Discussion Paper 12180
The purpose of the paper by Ghysels and Liu is to characterize fundamental changes in the downside risk of the Chinese stock market and discern what the causes of these changes are. Furthermore, they provide a synopsis of several key events that took place during the sample period (June 1995 – December 2016) and present an overview of the structure of the two stock exchanges in mainland China, namely the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange.
A new CEAMeS Discussion Paper was uploaded. “The Changing Patterns of Investment in the PRC Economy” by Carsten Holz is the CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 9. You can find it here.