“Border Effects without Borders: What Divides Japan’s Internal Trade?”

“Border Effects without Borders: What Divides Japan’s Internal Trade?”

Jens Wrona

In: International Economic Review, Volume 59 (August 2018), Issue 3, Pages 1209-1262

This article identifies a “border” effect in the absence of a border. The finding that trade between east and west Japan is 23.1% to 51.3% lower than trade within both country parts is established despite the absence of an obvious east–west division due to historical borders, cultural differences, or past civil wars.

“The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics”

“The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics”

Ayşe İmrohoroğlu and Kai Zhao

In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 96, June 2018, Pages 33-52

A general equilibrium model that properly captures the risks in old age, the role of family insurance, changes in demographics, and the productivity growth rate is capable of generating changes in the national saving rate in China that mimic the data well.

“Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms”

“Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms”

Meredith Crowley, Ning Meng and Huasheng Song

In: Journal of International Economics, Vol. 114, September 2018, Pages 96-115

Crowley et al. estimate how a rise in uncertainty about future tariff rates impacts firm decisions to enter into and exit from export markets. Using Chinese customs transactions between 2000 and 2009, they exploit time-variation in product-level trade policy and find that Chinese firms are less likely to enter new foreign markets and more likely to exit from established foreign markets when their products are subject to increased trade policy uncertainty.

“To guide or not to guide? Quantitative monetary policy tools and macroeconomic dynamics in China”

“To guide or not to guide? Quantitative monetary policy tools and macroeconomic dynamics in China”

Hongyi Chen, Michael Funke, Ivan Lozev and Andrew Tsang

BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2017

This paper discusses the macroeconomic effects of China’s informal banking regulatory tool “win-dow guidance,” introduced in 1998. Using an open-economy DSGE model that includes the com-mercial banking sector, we study the stabilizing effects of this non-standard quantitative monetary policy tool and the implications of quantity-based vs. price-based monetary policy instruments for welfare. The analyses are relevant to the current overhaul of Chinese monetary policy.

Antonia Reinecke and Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer published in “ifo Schnelldienst 14/2018”

In the latest edition of the “ifo Schnelldienst”, which deals with China’s “Made in China 2025” policy, Antonia Reinecke and Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer contribute an own article. They discuss China’s proposed way from the “Workbench of the World” to a high-technology leader as well as the opportunities and risks involved for current leading high-tech exporting economies. You can find and download the current issue and the respective article following this link.

 

Professor Rongrong Sun visited the FernUniversität in Hagen

On Thursday 9 August Professor Rongrong Sun from the Henan University in China visited the FernUniversität in Hagen and the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies to present her paper “What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from China”. During the two hours of her presentation Professor Sun talked about her current research and discussed the results with the attending participants. In the end, the meeting was a success for everyone. CEAMeS likes to thank Professor Sun for taking her time to come to Hagen and for her very interesting talk.


Source: Pressestelle FernUniversität in Hagen

Prof. Rongrong Sun is going to present her research at the FernUniversität in Hagen

The Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies is very honored to welcome Prof. Rongrong Sun from the Henan University, China on the 9th of august in Hagen. Prof. Sun will present her current research as part of her talk called “What Explains Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from China” (see also abstract below). After the talk all present will have the possibility to ask questions or discuss the findings that Prof. Sun presented.

Further information are available at the homepage of the chair of Macroeconomics from the FernUniversität (you can find it here).

Abstract:

This  paper uses the three rounds of the CHFS survey (2011and 2013) to  examine the determinants of household credit demand and credit constraints in China. In 2011, about the half of the households  that had a desire of bank credits were facing credit constraints, which  declined to 34 percent in 2013. In general, the credit market  participation rate in China is moderate, 14 percent in 2013, which is partly accountable to troublesome application  procedures and financial illiteracy among households.
The empirical estimation results suggest that income, wealth  and  education qualifications are the main factors driving credit market participation,  while high income, high wealth and more education lower credit  constraints. The family size, the home ownership and being self-employed  have positive significant impact on both.
The likelihood of being credit constrained and the chance of obtaining a loan, while being unemployed significantly increases the likelihood of being credit constrained only.
In China, the likelihood of being credit constrained peaks at 33 years old.
Moreover, the results show that people in the western region are less likely to be credit constrained on average. This implies the existence of regional imbalance in financial developments in China, despite the current general credit ease.

[CEAMeS DP13 ] “Structural change, rebalancing and the danger of a middle-income trap in China”

CEAMeS Discussion Paper No 13 | 2018

Helmut Wagner

China is currently experiencing a structural change toward tertiarization and an implied growth slowdown associated with it. The paper investigates whether this growth slowdown is merely cyclical or a negative trend, and further what China is doing or should do to avoid falling into a “middleincome trap,” a problem many emerging economies have experienced in recent decades. The pitfalls of the current “soft” rebalancing policy in China are analyzed in the context of this development.

Read Full Article [pdf]

Prof. Helmut Wagner published paper in the BOFIT Policy Brief series

Prof. Helmut Wagner published his paper “Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China” in the BOFIT Policy Brief series (BOFIT Policy Brief 2018 No. 6). He presented a first version of this paper early this year, when he attended an ECB-Conference in Helsiniki, Finland as the Keynote-Speaker. You can find the paper and an abstract here.

The paper is also available as CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 13 (you can find it here).

CEAMeS Researchers attend Conferences in China and Korea

With Linda Glawe, Antonia Reinecke and Michael Murach three CEAMeS-researchers will each attend a couple of conferences and workshops in the next weeks, to present their latest research results. Miss Glawe and Mister Murach will participate in the “2018 China Meeting of the Econometric Society” in Shanghai, China (June, 15-17) and Miss Reinecke and Miss Glawe are going to take part in the “2018 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society” in Seoul, Korea (June 21-23). On the 23rd and 24th of June Michael Murach will attend the “4th HenU/ INFER Workshop on Applied Macroeconomics” hosted by the Henan University in Kaifeng, China.

[CEAMeS DP12] “The Deep Determinants of Economic Development in China – A Provincial Perspective”

CEAMeS Discussion Paper No 12 | 2018

Linda Glawe and Helmut Wagner

There is a significant body of literature arguing that institutional quality is the key for long run economic growth and development. While the majority of these studies are based on cross-country growth regression, in our paper, we focus on the institution-economic growth nexus within a particular country, namely China. China is often regarded as an exception by having achieved miraculous growth for more than three decades despite relatively low institutional quality. However, our key findings suggest that at the provincial level, institutional quality played in fact an important role for the economic success of a province in China, “trumping” geographical factors and integration which only have an indirect effect by influencing institutional quality. We employ instrumental variable estimation techniques to address the endogeneity problems regarding the institutions-development relationship.

Read Full Article [pdf]

Second CEAMeS Workshop on East Asia Macroeconomic Studies in Xiamen has been successfully completed

The Second International Forum on East Asia Macroeconomic Studies organized by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University, China and the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies (CEAMeS) from the FernUniversität in Hagen, Germany took place in Xiamen last week. From the 9th May until the 11th over 40 international researchers from three different continents attended the three-day workshop. From the FernUniversität in Hagen Linda Glawe, Antonia Reinecke and Michael Murach presented their current research during the workshop. They were accompanied by Professor Helmut Wagner (Head of CEAMeS) and Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer (Deputy-Head of CEAMeS), who participated actively in the discussions during the workshop. The forum included presentations by researchers from well-known institutions and universities such as Kobe University and Hitotsubashi University, Japan and CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), China. Prof. Wagner, who was invited to speak during the opening ceremony alongside Professor Wuyuan Chen (Director, Managing Department of Social Sciences, Xiamen University) and Professor Wenpu Li (Director of the Center of Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University), was very satisfied with the second workshop. “I think the event was a great experience for all participants, and I want to thank the whole conference organizing committee for the smooth process during the workshop and our local hosts for their hospitality.” It was the second edition of the meeting, after the first workshop took place at the FernUniversität in Hagen one year ago.


(
Soruce: Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University, China)

From CEAMeS Linda Glawe gave a presentation on her latest paper “On the Deep Determinants of Economic Development in China – a Provincial Perspective”, and Antonia Reinecke gave a talk about ”Estimating the Local Effectiveness of Institutions: A Latent-Variable Approach”. Michael Murach presented his paper “Success Factors for Sustainable Catching up – Lessons from South Korea for China” (all papers will soon be published as CEAMeS discussion papers).

The three-day workshop was marked by a cordial atmosphere and mutual respect between the attendants. In his closing remarks, Porfessor Wenpu Li expressed his contentedness with the course of the workshop in cheerful words. Prof. Wagner announced that the third edition of the workshop will take place in Germany in 2019, and will again be organized by the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies. Prof. Schmerer stated, “The workshop has become a nice tradition between our organisations and I’m really looking forward to deepen our connections.”


(Source: Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University, China)

In the next days, we will upload a few pictures from the workshop on our website.

2nd CEAMeS Workshop on East Asia Macroeconomic Studies will take place soon

Next week (9th – 11th of May) the 2nd CEAMeS Workshop is about to start. After the successful debut last year, when the workshop took place at the FernUniversität in Hagen, the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University in China (XMU) will host the second event. Like last year, the workshop will again deal with current challenges concerning East Asian economies and especially China.

Prof. Wagner and Prof Schmerer are going to guide the delegation from the FernUniversität in Hagen which includes Linda Glawe, Antonia Reinecke and Michael Murach. The researchers will present their current research activities within the three-day workshop.

The workshop includes over twenty presentations by authors from five different countries. Prof. Wagner has the honor to speak, together with Prof. Wuyuan Chen and Prof. Wenpu Li (both XMU), at the opening ceremony. You can download the program as a PDF-file following this link [PDF].