Second CEAMeS Workshop on East Asia Macroeconomic Studies in Xiamen has been successfully completed

The Second International Forum on East Asia Macroeconomic Studies organized by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University, China and the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies (CEAMeS) from the FernUniversität in Hagen, Germany took place in Xiamen last week. From the 9th May until the 11th over 40 international researchers from three different continents attended the three-day workshop. From the FernUniversität in Hagen Linda Glawe, Antonia Reinecke and Michael Murach presented their current research during the workshop. They were accompanied by Professor Helmut Wagner (Head of CEAMeS) and Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer (Deputy-Head of CEAMeS), who participated actively in the discussions during the workshop. The forum included presentations by researchers from well-known institutions and universities such as Kobe University and Hitotsubashi University, Japan and CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), China. Prof. Wagner, who was invited to speak during the opening ceremony alongside Professor Wuyuan Chen (Director, Managing Department of Social Sciences, Xiamen University) and Professor Wenpu Li (Director of the Center of Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University), was very satisfied with the second workshop. “I think the event was a great experience for all participants, and I want to thank the whole conference organizing committee for the smooth process during the workshop and our local hosts for their hospitality.” It was the second edition of the meeting, after the first workshop took place at the FernUniversität in Hagen one year ago.


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Soruce: Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University, China)

From CEAMeS Linda Glawe gave a presentation on her latest paper “On the Deep Determinants of Economic Development in China – a Provincial Perspective”, and Antonia Reinecke gave a talk about ”Estimating the Local Effectiveness of Institutions: A Latent-Variable Approach”. Michael Murach presented his paper “Success Factors for Sustainable Catching up – Lessons from South Korea for China” (all papers will soon be published as CEAMeS discussion papers).

The three-day workshop was marked by a cordial atmosphere and mutual respect between the attendants. In his closing remarks, Porfessor Wenpu Li expressed his contentedness with the course of the workshop in cheerful words. Prof. Wagner announced that the third edition of the workshop will take place in Germany in 2019, and will again be organized by the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies. Prof. Schmerer stated, “The workshop has become a nice tradition between our organisations and I’m really looking forward to deepen our connections.”


(Soruce: Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University, China)

In the next days, we will upload a few pictures from the workshop on our website.

2nd CEAMeS Workshop on East Asia Macroeconomic Studies will take place soon

Next week (9th – 11th of May) the 2nd CEAMeS Workshop is about to start. After the successful debut last year, when the workshop took place at the FernUniversität in Hagen, the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University in China (XMU) will host the second event. Like last year, the workshop will again deal with current challenges concerning East Asian economies and especially China.

Prof. Wagner and Prof Schmerer are going to guide the delegation from the FernUniversität in Hagen which includes Linda Glawe, Antonia Reinecke and Michael Murach. The researchers will present their current research activities within the three-day workshop.

The workshop includes over twenty presentations by authors from five different countries. Prof. Wagner has the honor to speak, together with Prof. Wuyuan Chen and Prof. Wenpu Li (both XMU), at the opening ceremony. You can download the program as a PDF-file following this link [PDF].

“Financial frictions and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japanese microdata”

“Financial frictions and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japanese microdata”

Horst Raff, Michael Ryan and Frank Stähler

In: Journal of International Economics, Vol. 112, pp 109 – 122

Using Japanese microdata for the period 1980 to 2000 Raff et al. find evidence for two transmission channels from financial shocks to foreign direct investment: a collateral channel, whereby changes in the value of investors’ landholdings affect their borrowing ability; and a lending channel, whereby changes in bank health affect banks’ lending ability.

“Government Credit, a Double‐Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank”

“Government Credit, a Double‐Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank”

Hong Ru

In: The Journal of Finance, Vol. 73, No. 1, pp 275 – 316

Using proprietary data from the China Development Bank (CDB), this paper examines the effects of government credit on firm activities. Tracing the effects of government credit across different levels of the supply chain, Ru finds that CDB industrial loans to state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) crowd out private firms in the same industry, but crowd in private firms in downstream industries.

“The effects of ownership change on bank performance and risk exposure: Evidence from indonesia”

“The effects of ownership change on bank performance and risk exposure: Evidence from Indonesia”

Mohamed Shaban and Gregory A. James

In: Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 88, pp 483 – 497

Shaban and James investigate the effects of an ownership change on the performance and exposure to risk of 60 Indonesian commercial banks over the period 2005-2012. They can show, that state-owned banks tend to be less profitable and more exposed to risk than private and/or foreign banks.

CEAMeS published two new Discussion Papers

You can find two new Discussion Papers by Linda Glawe and Prof. Helmut Wagner on our website. The CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 10: “The Deep Determinants of the Middle-Income Trap” is available here; and the CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 11: “The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development – The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon” is available here.

[CEAMeS DP11] – “The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development – The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon”

CEAMeS Discussion Paper No11 | 2017

Linda Glawe and Helmut Wagner

The so-called ‘deep determinants’ of economic growth and development (namely, geography, institutions, and integration) have been found to be decisive for the break out of stagnation and for explaining cross-country income differences by many empirical studies. However, so far, very little has been done to examine to which extent they are also crucial at more subtle stages of economic development. Our paper aims to close this gap by focusing on the phenomenon of the middle-income trap (MIT) which has reached increasing attention in the last 15 years. In particular, we test whether the results of the empirical studies conducted by Acemoglu et al. (2001), Rodrik et al. (2004), and Easterly and Levine (2016) also remain valid when analyzing the MIT. We are the first to analyze the relationship between the deep determinants and the MIT, especially regarding the causal effect of institutional quality on the probability of experiencing a growth slowdown at the middle-income range. Our analysis reveals that while, in general, the deep determinants also seem to play an important role for the middle-income transition (and the question of whether a country falls into an MIT), some differences compared to the results of the standard literature become apparent.

Read Full Article [pdf]

[CEAMeS DP10] – “The Deep Determinants of the Middle-Income Trap”

CEAMeS Discussion Paper No 10 | 2017

Linda Glawe and Helmut Wagner

The fundamental, underlying factors of development are often neglected when analyzing the question why countries experience a growth slowdown at the middle-income range. Although these so-called ‘deep determinants’ such as geography and institutions have been found to be decisive for the break out of stagnation and for explaining cross-country income differences by many empirical studies, so far, very little has been done to examine to which extent they are also crucial at more subtle stages of economic development. Our paper aims to contribute to close this gap by focusing on the phenomenon of the middle-income trap (MIT) which has reached increasing attention in the last 15 years. In particular, we are interested in whether the deep determinants have positive or negative impacts on the possibility of a country to experience a prolonged stay within the middle-income range. We focus especially on exogenous variables to avoid endogeneity/reverse causality problems. By using simple statistical hypothesis testing, we show that not all findings of the deep determinants literature can be easily transferred to the MIT phenomenon, especially regarding institutional variables. This may raise the question whether we need new deep determinants of growth for the MIT or at least a modified version taking into account the specific circumstances and characteristics of middle-income countries.

Read Full Article [pdf]

Prof. Wagner was Keynote Speaker at ECB-Conference

On the 22nd of March Prof. Wagner gave, at invitation of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Keynote Speech at the annual workshop of the China Expert Network (CEN) in Helsinki, Finland. The CEN is a network of experts on economic questions of China that contains members of the 28 national central banks in europe, the IMF, the OECD, the BIS and the Chinese and American central banks. The talk held by Prof. Wagner was titled: „Growth impact of structural change and the danger of an MIT in China“.

“Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China”

“Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China”

Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski and Pi-Han Tsai

IMF Working Paper WP/17/273

Chen et al. estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. They use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure. The results suggest that reducing credit growth in China is unlikely to disrupt output growth, whereas fiscal policy may be effective in supporting macroeconomic adjustment.

“Risks in China’s Financial System”

“Risks in China’s Financial System”

Zheng Michael Song and Wei Xiong

NBER Working Paper No. 24230

Since 2008 the Chinese debt-to-GDP ratio skyrockets. This fact, and the high leverage as well as the soaring housing prices, have caused wide concerns about the risks and instability of China’s financial system. Motivated by these concerns Song and Xiong reviewed several commonly perceived financial risks in their article and discuss the roots in China’s unique economic and financial system.

Prof. Wagner and Linda Glawe presented their current research in the USA

From 3rd – 11th of January Prof. Wagner and Linda Glawe presented their current research in the USA. They presented their new paper “A Stylized Model of China’s Growth Since 1978” at the 2018 ASSA Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (the program is available here). Furthermore, Prof. Wagner held, on invitation, a workshop at the IMF in Washington, D.C. about “China and the Middle-Income Trap” where he and Miss Glawe presented their latest papers and research results.

Prof. Dr. Wagner was honored by the FernUniversität in Hagen

Due to his 40th-year jubilee in the public service , Prof. Dr. Helmut Wagner was honored by Prof. Dr. Ada Pellert, the rector of the Fernuniversität in Hagen. Prof. Dr. Pellert especially emphasized Prof. Wagner’s value for the FernUniversität as an internationally highly recognized researcher. In 1976, he earned his doctoral degree at the University of Regensburg. In 1982 he took the position of a full professor at an university in Hamburg. Since 1995 he is full professor and chair holder of macroeconomics at the Fernuniversität Hagen, moreover he is the head of the macroeconomic section in the institute  “Hagener Managementstudien” and head of the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies (CEAMeS).

Particularly Prof. Dr. Wagner’s remarkable international cooperation and his numerous, worldwide research trips were highlighted by Prof. Dr. Pellert. Besides of regular invitations by the International Monetary Fund, he has hold numerous visiting positions at other renowned institutions such as Princeton University, MIT, US Fed or the Bank of Japan. Prof. Dr. Pellert considers Prof. Dr. Wagner as a role model for other researchers because of his great number of international contacts.

If you want to read the full article in German, you can find it here.


Prof. Wagner (r) ist honored by Prof. Pellert (l) (Source: FernUniversität in Hagen)

CEAMeS updated its conference section

We updated the conference section of our website and added six conferences (you can find them here). They all deal with East-Asian topics in one way or another, and take place in 2018. Following the corresponding link beneath each conference, you will reach the associated conference homepage. There you can find all useful information, such as deadlines, registration information or preliminary programs.