“Roads, Railroads, and Decentralization of Chinese Cities”
Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Loren Brandt, Vernon Henderson, Matthew Turner
In: Review of Economics and Statistics Volume 99 | Issue 3 | July 2017
Baum-Snow et al. investigate the effects of the recently constructed Chines national highway system on local economic outcomes. They focus on the different consequences for regional primates and hinterland prefectures and offer, based on their results, policy implications.
“Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States”
Kyle Handley and Nuno Limão
In: American Economic Review, Vol. 107, No. 9, 2731–2783
One of the most important economic developments of the last 20 years is China’s integration into the global trading system. The world’s share of imports from China between 1990 and 2010 rose from 2 to 11 percent. Handley and Limão argue that China’s WTO accession significantly contributed to its export boom to the United States through a reduction in US trade policy uncertainty. To verify that argument they build a model that allows them to interpret, gauge and quantify the effects of trade policy uncertainty.
“US policy spillover(?) –China’s accession to the WTO and rising exports to the EU”
In: European Economic Review, Vol. 98, September 2017, 169-188
Mau analyzes in his paper the transmission of bilateral trade policies on multilateral exports, due to existence of a global component in fixed export entry costs. Therefore he provides formal intuition for a spillover from bilateral US tariffs policies to China’s multilateral export performance. With this analysis he shed some light on the understanding of the consequences of international trade policies.
“Does the Stock Market Boost Firm Innovation? Evidence from Chinese Firms”
Hui He, Hanya Li and Jinfan Zhang
IMF Working Paper 17/147
He et al. deal with the question whether the stock market affects a firm’s innovation activity or not. To do so they examine the innovation activities of Chinese firms by make use of the unique characteristics of the Chinese patent system. In their paper they are running an ordinary least squares regression as well as a difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the endogeneity concerns that come along with the OLS analysis.
“Trading with China: Productivity Gains, Job Losses”
JaeBin Ahn, Romain Duval
IMF Working Paper No. 17/122
In this paper Ahn and Duval discuss the benefits and costs of rising trade between China and advanced economies. They criticize the shift in the economic focus, away from the benefits toward the costs of a globalized world. Therefore the authors analyze the impact of productivity in advanced economies of fast-growing trade with China between the mid-1990s and late-2000s.
“WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms”
Loren Brandt, Johannes van Biesebroeck, Luhang Wang and Yifan Zhang
In: American Economic Review 2017, Vol. 107, No. 9, 2784-2820
Brandt et al. examine the effects that the trade liberalization in China during the last decades had on the evolution of markups and productivity of Chinese manufacturing firms. Therefore they use firm-level data that covers most of the manufacturing sector in China to investigate the role of domestic trade liberalization over a period that takes China’s WTO-entry 2001 into account.
“Downside Risk in the Chinese Stock Market – Has it Fundamentally Changed?”
Eric Ghysels, Hanwei Liu
CEPR Discussion Paper 12180
The purpose of the paper by Ghysels and Liu is to characterize fundamental changes in the downside risk of the Chinese stock market and discern what the causes of these changes are. Furthermore, they provide a synopsis of several key events that took place during the sample period (June 1995 – December 2016) and present an overview of the structure of the two stock exchanges in mainland China, namely the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange.
Antonia Reinecke & Hans-Jörg Schmerer
Forthcoming in: Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 15 (2017)
This paper investigates the role of local governments’ efficiency on exports in China. We argue that firms located in provinces characterized by high governmental efficiency export more due to a positive productivity effect that lowers transaction costs. The analysis builds on NBS firm-level data that covers a representative sample of Chinese establishments. We find a positive correlation between provincial governments efficiency and Chinese firm’s exports. Moreover, we are able to show that the positive link between firm size and exports is magnified by governmental efficiency. Larger firms export more and this relationship is much stronger in provinces with more efficient provincial governments.
Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner
ADBI Working Paper No. 749, 2017
Over the last decade, a growing body of literature dealing with the phenomenon of the “middle-income trap” (MIT) has emerged. The term MIT usually refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth and thus reached the status of a middle-income country in a very short period, but have not been able to further catch up with the group of high-income economies. In particular, since the beginning of the growth slowdown of the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2011, there has been rising concern that the PRC is, or will also be, confronted with such a trap. We analyze the PRC’s MIT situation, considering both the (absolute and relative) empirical MIT definitions and MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We survey the recent literature, make our own MIT forecasts, and analyze under which conditions the PRC could be caught in an MIT.
Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner
in: Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 15 (3), July 2017, pp. 269-287
China’s economy has been growing at a high rate for the past three decades. However, the current process of rebalancing from an investment- and manufacturing-led growth model toward a consumption- and service-led model is associated with decreasing growth rates. We show that China’s current state of structural change in terms of sectoral employment share is similar to the historical developments in Japan and South Korea. We derive plausible scenarios for future growth rates in China and (by isolating the allocation effect, i.e. the pure effect of structural change) look at the effects of tertiarization on economic growth in China for the period 2014−2030 by applying a simple simulation study.
“The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes”
Zhuo Chen, Zhiguo He, Chun Liu
NBER Working Paper No. 23598
This paper links China’s recent fast-growing shadow banking activities to the four trillion stimulus package in 2009. Chen et al. zoom in on the composition shift of the liability side of China’s local governments, and show that the rollover pressure of bank loans that were taken on by local government finance vehicles in 2009 pushed them toward non-bank debt financing after 2012.
“Sterilized Inteervention and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy”
Wukuang Cun and Jie Li
USC-INET Research Paper No. 16-29R
In this paper Cun and Ji examine the extent to which monetary sterilization can neutralize the effects of currency intervention in China. In addition, they study the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments and the optimal policy rules given China’s current external policy regimes.
“Westward movement of new polluting firms in China: Pollution reduction mandates and location choice”
Haoyi Wu, Huanxiu Guo, Bing Zhang and Maoliang Bu
In: Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 45, No. 1, 119-138
In their paper Wu et al. question the efficiency of the environmental policy in China by providing a systematic study of new polluters’ location due to the 11th Five-Year-Plan (2006-2010) pollution reduction mandate. They investigate a self-enforcing process. On the one hand, to maximize their profits, polluting firms could migrate to the western provinces where mandates are less stringent. That would raise concerns about pollution transfer instead of pollution reduction. On the other hand western provinces with low mandates generally have weak institutional capacity and low levels of environmental management. That could give polluting firms an additional incentive to emit more pollution in these provinces. To investigate these questions they use a conditional logit model.
“China’s evolving monetary policy rule: from inflation accommodating to anti-inflation policy”
Eric Girardin, Sandrine Lunven and Guonan Ma
BIS Working Papers No. 641, May 2017
Since the early 90’s China has experienced massive liberalizations and transformations within its economy. Therefore, it is probable that China’s monetary policy has evolved as a byproduct of these effects. The aim of this paper is to construct a new discrete monetary policy index (MPI), which is able to assess the policy and its changes. Furthermore, they use this index to estimate a People’s Bank of China (PBC) monetary policy rule, to analyze whether the major transformations associated with the last two decades in China had an effect on the reaction function of the PBC.
“China’s Current Account: External Rebalancing or Capital Flight?”
FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1208, June 2017
With China’s current account surplus falling from about 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to below 1.5 % of GDP in 2013, the days of colossal current account surpluses appear to be a distant memory. In this paper Anna Wong provides evidence that suggests that China’s official current account balance in recent years has been distorted to some extent by large financial outflows disguised as service trade transactions. To do so she uses two empirical approaches. On the one hand the so called mirror approach and on the other hand one that relies on econometric models.