“China’s GDP Growth May Be Understated”
Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy. Xavier Sala-i-Martin
NBER Working Paper No. 23323
Clark et al. discuss the concerns about the quality of China’s official GDP statistics and whether Chinese growth is under- or overstated by those statistics. Therefore they exploit nighttime lights to compute the optimal weights for various economic indicators to a best unbiased predictor of Chinese growth rates.
“Industrial Policies for Avoiding the Middle-income Trap: A New Structural Economics Perspective”
Justin Yifu Lin
in: Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies Vol. 15, No. 1, 5-18
In this paper Lin presents a manual how middle-income countries can avoid the middle-income trap by using limited resources to facilitate technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Thus, these economies can overcome coordinating issues and inherent externalities during the process of structural transformation.
Thai-Ha Le, Jungsuk Kim & Minsoo Lee
Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 52:1047–1059, 2016
We examine the determinants of financial sector development in Asia and the Pacific from 1995 to 2011. In terms of economic growth, over the last twenty years the region has outperformed other parts of the world and has also experienced major developments in its traditionally bank-dominated financial system since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We apply the dynamic generalized method of moments to a panel data set of twenty-six economies in the region. The estimations were done for the whole panel as well as for subpanels of developed and developing economies. We find that better governance and institutional quality foster financial sector development in developing economies while economic growth and trade openness are key determinants of financial depth in developed economies.
Minsoo Lee, Ruben Carlo Asuncion & Jungsuk Kim
Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 52:923–937, 2016
Before the 2008 global financial crisis, bank monitoring focused primarily on risks to individual institutions, or what are generally referred to as prudential risks. Regulators thus failed to consider that a buildup of macroeconomic risks and vulnerabilities could pose systemic risk to the financial sector. The global credit crisis showed the inadequacy of purely prudential surveillance systems and the need for bank supervisors to better detect the buildup of macroeconomic risks before they can threaten the financial system. This article presents an empirical framework for analyzing how effectively macroprudential policies control credit growth, leverage growth, and housing price appreciation. Two significant findings emerge. Broadly, macroprudential policies can indeed promote financial stability in Asia. More specifically, different types of macroprudential policies are proved effective for different types of macroeconomic risks.