Professor Wagner interviewed by South Korean Television

Professor Wagner had been invited as a third party expert to talk during the format “News Center” which is part of the television program “Arirang News” broadcasted by the Korean Television Channel “Arirang TV”. In a long interview broadcasted live, he gave his assessment of the potential consequences of the trade dispute between Japan and South Korea, which is currently attracting a lot of attention in Asia.

The origin of the dispute between the two countries are the compensation payments that a South Korean court had imposed on Japanese firms. Last week the conflict reached its peak when Japan tightened curbs on exports of several materials crucial for advanced consumer electronics. Additionally, Tokyo removed South Korea from the list of “white countries” — countries that Japan rates to have trustworthy export control systems. The South Korean President Moon Jae-in reacted with a statement in which he announced retaliations. Professor Wagner was asked as an international expert on East Asian economies to evaluate the danger of a trade-war and what kind of consequences could follow.

Arirang TV is a global, English-language TV Channel in Seoul, South Korea. Its program is destined for overseas countries (comparable to BBC World News) and is supported by the “Korea International Broadcasting Foundation” und financially supported by “Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism of South Korea”. The program is broadcasted into 105 countries

Professor Wagner attends AEP meeting in Helsink

Professor Wagner attended on invitation the “Asian Economic Panel” from 9th until 11th of June in Helsinki, Finnland. He was asked to discuss a paper on: ”Why is there no Asian Monetary Fund?” The Asian Economic Panel meets three times each year and has been initiated 18 years ago by the “The Center for Sustainable Development” of the Columbia University, USA, and various Asian research centers, which still provide funding for the events. A carefully selected subset of the papers presented at these AEP meetings is later published in a revised form in the journal “Asian Economic Papers”. The Panel is one of the most highly regarded regular meetings dealing with economic issues on Asia.

East Asia Forum: Economic (dis)integration

The Center for East Asia Macroeconomic studies was part of a UK-German consortium that organised the first East Asia Forum on Economic (dis-)integration, which took place at the University of Westminster (London, UK) on Friday 14, 2019. Alongside CEAMeS the Institute of East Asian Studies from the University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany, the Westminster Business School and Contemporary China Centre from the University of Westminster were part of that consortium.

Greater global interconnection versus nationalism and isolation – in this field of tension the workshop explored economic issues and challenges. The current trade dispute between China and the administration of US-president Donald Trump, as well as the Belt and Road Initiative, a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government, which involves infrastructure developments and investments in about 152 countries, were two of the main topics considered.

After the third CEAMeS Workshop in May, it was the second event CEAMeS (co-) organized this year. According to Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer, who represented CEAMeS at the forum in London, this is the future path the Center should take; he emphasized, “Presenting your own research in front of others is crucial for academic success”.

Co-host Dr Karen Jackson, from the University of Westminster praised the diverse group of researcher who attended the forum: “We are very grateful to all the delegates who joined us from across Europe, some old friends and also new acquaintances.” All in all, speakers gathered from the London School of Economics (UK), University of Gothenburg (Sweden), University of Duisburg-Essen, University of Wuppertal, Heidelberg University, FernUniversität in Hagen (all Germany), Aston University (Birmingham, UK), Lazarski University (Warsaw, Poland) and the University of Portsmouth (UK).

So, the event in London brought together an excellent array of scholars from all fields related to international economics focused on drivers and consequences of trade between China and the rest of the world. A highlight of the forum was the keynote speech from Professor Kerry Brown from the King’s College in London. He is a leading international expert on China and previously worked as First Secretary at the British Embassy in Beijing.

Third CEAMeS Workshop on „Macroeconomic Development and Trade in East Asia”

Third CEAMeS Workshop on „Macroeconomic Development and Trade in East Asia”

In the last three years, the CEAMeS Workshop has taken a firm place in the yearly agends of the FernUniversität. After the second workshop took place in Xiamen, China, the third edition took place once more in Hagen, Germany. From May 9th until the 11th eleven speakers from three different countries presented their current research. After the welcoming speach of Prof. Dr. Ada Pellert, Rector of the FernUniversität in Hagen, and Prof. Dr. Helmut Wagner, Head of the CEAMeS Center at the FernUniversität in Hagen, several speeches focusing on the macroeconomic development in East Asia (especially China) were given.

Prof. Dr. Ada Pellert during her welcoming speech (Source: FernUniversität in Hagen, media office).

Intensive conversations and discussions were the center of this year’s meeting in Hagen, which deepened the relationship between CEAMeS and its research fellows. “The three-day workshop was received very well by the audience and I think we are all very much looking forward to future collaborations”, Prof. Wagner summarized the workshop.

Group picture from the third CEAMeS Workshop (Source: FernUniversität in Hagen, media office)

An important role during the meeting played the delegation of the “Center for Macroeconomic Research” from the Xiamen University in China. At the end of the workshop the head of this delegation, Prof. Min Gong, Deputy Director at the CMR, complimented the efficient organization of the workshop and announced that a delegation from CEAMeS is invited to return to Xiamen in 2020 for the fourth edition: “As soon as we are back home, the preparation for the next workshop will begin.”

“I think this invitation shows that the close relationship between CEAMeS and the Center for Macroeconomic Studies in Xiamen is highly sustainable. I am really looking forward to return to Xiamen University next year.”, Prof. Wagner responded to Prof. Min Gongs closing remarks.

Prof. Dr. Helmut Wagner (right) during his welcoming speech (Source: FernUniversität in Hagen, media office)

The intensive exchange with international researchers has become one of the key elements of the Center during the last years. In June another workshop, which is co-organized by CEAMeS, will take place at the Westminster University in London, UK. Professor Schmerer points out that “presenting your own research in front of others is crucial for academic success. This event in London will be another great opportunity to sharpen the academic profile of University of Hagen and our Center abroad”.

More information about this event will published soon on our homepage.

The program of the third CEAMeS Workshop and a short abstract of every presentation can be found here.

Call for Papers – East Asia Forum: Economic (Dis)integration in London

On June 14, 2019 the East Asia Forum on Economic (Dis)integration that is jointly organized by CEAMeS, the Institute of East Asia Studies from the University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany and the Contemporary China Centre (CCC) from the University of Westminster, London, UK will take place at the University of Westminster in London, UK. The aim of this forum is to bring together scholars from all fields related to international economics focusing on drivers and consequences of trade between China and the rest of the world.

If you would like to submit a paper, you can find the relevant information in the attached file.

You can find the PDF-version here: CEAMeS_Call for Papers_Juni2019

CEAMeS Discussion Paper 15 now online

“The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia” is the title of the latest paper published by Prof. Dr. Helmut Wagner and Linda Glawe. In this paper, they modify the concept of the middle-income trap against the background of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and future challenges of automation. You can find the whole text here.

New CEAMeS Discussion Paper (CEAMeS DP 14) published

Professor Dr. Helmut Wagner and Michael Murach published a new CEAMeS Discussion Paper. The paper “Avoiding the middle-income trap: Korean lessons for China?” has been written together with Dr. Jungsuk Kim (from Sejong University in Seoul) and Dr. Donghyun Park (from the Asian Development Bank in Manila). The paper analyses and compares the pattern of economic growth and development of China and Korea in the post-war period. It is the first CEAMeS Discussion Paper that was written within an international collaboration. Dr. Donghyun Park also gave a guest lecture at the FernUniversität in Hagen in October 2016. You can find the full text here.

Antonia Reinecke and Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer published in “ifo Schnelldienst 14/2018”

In the latest edition of the “ifo Schnelldienst”, which deals with China’s “Made in China 2025” policy, Antonia Reinecke and Professor Hans-Jörg Schmerer contribute an own article. They discuss China’s proposed way from the “Workbench of the World” to a high-technology leader as well as the opportunities and risks involved for current leading high-tech exporting economies. You can find and download the current issue and the respective article following this link.


Professor Rongrong Sun visited the FernUniversität in Hagen

On Thursday 9 August Professor Rongrong Sun from the Henan University in China visited the FernUniversität in Hagen and the Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies to present her paper “What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from China”. During the two hours of her presentation Professor Sun talked about her current research and discussed the results with the attending participants. In the end, the meeting was a success for everyone. CEAMeS likes to thank Professor Sun for taking her time to come to Hagen and for her very interesting talk.

Source: Pressestelle FernUniversität in Hagen

Prof. Rongrong Sun is going to present her research at the FernUniversität in Hagen

The Center for East Asia Macroeconomic Studies is very honored to welcome Prof. Rongrong Sun from the Henan University, China on the 9th of august in Hagen. Prof. Sun will present her current research as part of her talk called “What Explains Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from China” (see also abstract below). After the talk all present will have the possibility to ask questions or discuss the findings that Prof. Sun presented.

Further information are available at the homepage of the chair of Macroeconomics from the FernUniversität (you can find it here).


This  paper uses the three rounds of the CHFS survey (2011and 2013) to  examine the determinants of household credit demand and credit constraints in China. In 2011, about the half of the households  that had a desire of bank credits were facing credit constraints, which  declined to 34 percent in 2013. In general, the credit market  participation rate in China is moderate, 14 percent in 2013, which is partly accountable to troublesome application  procedures and financial illiteracy among households.
The empirical estimation results suggest that income, wealth  and  education qualifications are the main factors driving credit market participation,  while high income, high wealth and more education lower credit  constraints. The family size, the home ownership and being self-employed  have positive significant impact on both.
The likelihood of being credit constrained and the chance of obtaining a loan, while being unemployed significantly increases the likelihood of being credit constrained only.
In China, the likelihood of being credit constrained peaks at 33 years old.
Moreover, the results show that people in the western region are less likely to be credit constrained on average. This implies the existence of regional imbalance in financial developments in China, despite the current general credit ease.

Prof. Helmut Wagner published paper in the BOFIT Policy Brief series

Prof. Helmut Wagner published his paper “Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China” in the BOFIT Policy Brief series (BOFIT Policy Brief 2018 No. 6). He presented a first version of this paper early this year, when he attended an ECB-Conference in Helsiniki, Finland as the Keynote-Speaker. You can find the paper and an abstract here.

The paper is also available as CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 13 (you can find it here).

CEAMeS Researchers attend Conferences in China and Korea

With Linda Glawe, Antonia Reinecke and Michael Murach three CEAMeS-researchers will each attend a couple of conferences and workshops in the next weeks, to present their latest research results. Miss Glawe and Mister Murach will participate in the “2018 China Meeting of the Econometric Society” in Shanghai, China (June, 15-17) and Miss Reinecke and Miss Glawe are going to take part in the “2018 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society” in Seoul, Korea (June 21-23). On the 23rd and 24th of June Michael Murach will attend the “4th HenU/ INFER Workshop on Applied Macroeconomics” hosted by the Henan University in Kaifeng, China.