[CEAMeS DP01] – „The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective“

CEAMeS Discussion Paper No 1 | 2016

Michael Murach and Helmut Wagner

also published as: 
SSRN Paper No. 2741579, March 2016. 

We study the effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China and its sectors (agriculture, industry, and services) in terms of real GDP growth using several small dimensional VAR models with Cholesky identification for the period 1996 – 2014. We show that China – in particular its industrial sector – is susceptible to shocks, which can be related to a trade channel, a financial channel, and a confidence channel of business cycle transmission from major trading partner countries to the Chinese economy. If interpreted from the perspective of ongoing structural change and rebalancing in China, our findings can be interpreted as the result of a still very dominant industrial sector, and a previously export- and investment-driven growth model. Tertiarization in China could be one way of increasing the economy’s future resilience to external shocks. However, the future structure of both the industrial and service sectors may be very decisive.

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